In discussions with preparedness planners, we have found that the lack of population surge estimates (i.e., estimates of the number of persons who may enter a rural community after a catastrophic event) is seen as a significant barrier to local planning efforts. Rural preparedness dollars can be more effectively and efficiently utilized at the local level if communities have information on population surge, thereby creating a basis upon which community preparedness planners can determine needed resources and supplies. This study will use a national household survey and a series of discussions with community and national experts to inform rural preparedness planning efforts and augment the predictive accuracy of a tool being developed by the Walsh Center for rural preparedness planners.

In the first phase of this study, Walsh Center staff conducted key informant interviews with preparedness experts, including national experts and paired urban-rural preparedness planners. Interview protocols focused on anticipated behavior and response of urban residents following a disaster, the likelihood of self-evacuation to surrounding rural areas, the ability of rural communities to accommodate evacuees, and planning efforts to address these concerns.

The second phase of the project was a national survey of urban residents to assess their intended behavior following an urban disaster. Interview questions focused on issues such as whether they have formulated disaster plans, whether they have family within the region, whether they are likely to follow governmental shelter in place orders, etc. The survey included a standard series of demographic questions for use in the tabulation of results. Relevant variables for this analysis include: gender, age, household income, marital status, geographic region, metro/non-metro residency, race, education, and employment status.

Results from both study phases have been released as Policy Briefs and will be included in a final study report.

Publications

• Spontaneous Evacuation Following a Dirty Bomb or Pandemic Influenza: Highlights From a National Survey of Urban Residents' Intended Behavior
  NORC Walsh Center for Rural Health Analysis
  Date: 11/2007
  This policy analysis brief reports the results of a national survey to assess the evacuation intentions of urban citizens following emergency scenarios. It includes information on how likely it would be for evacuees to go to rural or urban areas and discusses the potential impact of an urban evacuation on rural areas.
• Urban-to-Rural Evacuation: Planning for Population Surge
  Policy Brief
  NORC Walsh Center for Rural Health Analysis
  Date: 04/2007
  This policy brief discusses disaster planning and how rural preparedness officials face significant informational, organizational, and infrastructural constraints in their abilities to prepare for a potential population surge from urban areas.
• Urban-to-Rural Evacuation: Planning for Rural Population Surge (Final Report)
  NORC Walsh Center for Rural Health Analysis
  Date: 08/2008
  This study assessed the likelihood of urban evacuation to rural areas and provides recommendations for rural planning and response.